経済学界ではNobel賞に最も近いと言われるJohn Bates Clark賞を受賞し、Freakonomics（ヤバい経済学）で有名なSteven Levittが、自分のブログで恒例のKentucky Derbyの予想をしたけど、今年は散々な結果に終わったという話。
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/01/annual-kentucky-derby-predictions/
Levittの注目馬はGeneral Quarters、Papa Clem、Friesan Fire、Musket Man、Flying Privateの5頭。
In contrast to the last two years, my computer model has some strong predictions for this year’s Derby. The two horses I like best from a betting perspective (i.e. the ones I think actually have a positive expected value if you place a win bet on them) are General Quarters and Papa Clem. Both are long shots, with morning-line odds of 20-1, but my model predicts their actual odds will be lower than this.
コンピュータモデルで分析した結果、特にGeneral QuartersとPapa Clemを強く推奨とのこと。
結果は散々。
- General Quarters 10着
- Papa Clem 4着
- Friesan Fire 18着
- Musket Man 3着
- Flying Private 19着
ちなみに20頭登録で1頭取り消したので19頭立て。
Levittは最後に最下位指名をするならこの馬だとMine That Birdを指名。
If I had to pick a last-place finisher (a bet they would never actually offer at the track because people involved with horse racing understand better than most that people respond to incentives), it would be Mine That Bird.
2009 Kentucky Derby - YouTube
結果はご存知の通り。直線でMine That Birdが最内を突いて鋭く伸び、後続に6馬身差をつけて圧勝！経済学者の景気の予測はあてにならないが、経済学者の競馬の予想もあてにならないという話ですね。
レース後の記事では、
http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/04/thankfully-no-one-pays-attention/
「プリークネスも予想いる？おれの予想と逆の予想をすれば当たるぜ！」と、そこいらの競馬オヤジと同じ台詞を吐いております。
